SEATTLE (Oil Monster): Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy SaaS company that leverages generative AI across its solutions, is releasing a new analysis forecasting U.S. data center load growth and its implications for natural gas demand through 2030.
EIR projects 30 gigawatts (GW) of new U.S. data center capacity over the next five years—significantly below the 50 GW forecasted by major grid operators. This more conservative outlook reflects the impact of stricter utility requirements, which have already reduced speculative project proposals by more than 50% in states such as Ohio.
“Our research shows that while data center expansion will drive substantial energy demand, it will have a marginal impact on natural gas in the immediate years,” said Jimmy McNamara, CFA, principal analyst at EIR. “By focusing on confirmed projects and real-world constraints, we provide a more accurate outlook for both the power and natural gas sectors.”
Key takeaways:
EIR forecasts 30 GW of new U.S. data center capacity by 2030, compared to 50 GW projected by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and PJM Interconnection (PJM).
Recent policy changes in states like Ohio, including higher power costs and stricter credit requirements, led to a 15 GW (over 50%) drop in proposed data center projects.
If all new capacity were gas-fired, it could add up to 4.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of incremental Lower 48 natural gas demand by 2030; however, gas growth will be lower as grid-connected data centers use mixed generation sources. EIR is more confident in 2.1 Bcf/d of growth from behind-the-meter projects with dedicated gas generation.
For example, a 1 GW data center uses approximately 140 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of natural gas, less than 1% of Appalachia’s daily production.
Courtesy: www.enverus.com
