Goldman Sachs flags two‑way risks to their 2026 oil price outlook

 April 15 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Tuesday flagged both upside and downside risks to its average 2026 crude forecasts for Brent/WTI at $83/78 per barrel, citing growing ​uncertainty around Middle East developments and oil flows through the Strait ‌of Hormuz.

• Reduced flows through Hormuz pose the biggest upside risk to Goldman's price forecasts, with estimated oil flows through the strait still at 10% of normal or 2.1 million ​barrels per day (bpd), they said.
• The United States Navy on Monday had ​begun a blockade on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports and coastal ⁠areas, posing further upside risk to prices as Iran-associated tankers have been ​accounting for most recent flows through the strait.
• Meanwhile, cuts to oil production in ​the Middle East were lower than Goldman's mid-March estimates, skewing prices to the downside.
• The bank estimates 8 million bpd of average crude production shut-ins in the Persian Gulf in ​March, roughly in line with OPEC Secondary Sources but lower than IEA ​estimates of 10 million bpd.
• The announcement of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and rising prospects of a ‌near-term ⁠peace deal have added further downward pressure on prices by easing the geopolitical risk premium.
• The bank said that global visible oil inventories are drawing down at a markedly slower pace, with estimated draws easing to around 2 million ​bpd over the past ​week from roughly ⁠7 million bpd on a month-to-date basis.
• This slowdown may reflect that a growing share of inventory draws are occurring ​in landed product stocks across non-OECD Asia, or that ​demand losses ⁠may be accelerating.
• Goldman estimates that naphtha demand in April is likely to decrease by roughly 1.3 million bpd compared to February levels, while jet fuel demand is ⁠likely ​0.5 million bpd below its trend.
• Brent crude futures ​were steady at $94.75 a barrel at 0701 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down ​0.3% to $90.98 per barrel.