SEATTLE (Oil Monster): Oil prices are expected to drift lower in 2026 amid an expanding global supply surplus, though geopolitical tensions involving Russia, Venezuela and Iran are likely to keep markets volatile, according to an investment bank forecast.
Goldman Sachs maintained its 2026 average price outlook of $56 per barrel for Brent and $52 for WTI crude, with prices projected to bottom at around $54/$50 in the final quarter as OECD inventories build.
The bank noted that a supply surplus of about 2.3 million barrels per day could require lower prices to rebalance the market, slowing non-OPEC supply growth while supporting demand, barring major disruptions or OPEC cuts.
Brent and WTI both declined nearly 20% in the past year, reflecting oversupply and shifting fundamentals. Analysts also pointed out that U.S. policymakers’ focus on strong energy supplies may limit sustained price upside, particularly ahead of political events.
Goldman expects oil prices to gradually recover in 2027 as non-OPEC supply growth slows and demand strengthens, with Brent and WTI forecast to average $58 and $54 per barrel, respectively, albeit lower than earlier projections due to expanded supply from the U.S., Venezuela and Russia.
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