S&P: Israel-Iran Conflict Unlikely to Change Trajectory of Global Oil Flows

SEATTLE (Oil Monster): The most recent S&P Global Commodity Insights report noted that the conflict between Iran and Israel is unlikely to lead to a change in the trajectory of global oil flows.

Oil supply has rapidly increased and oil prices have eased as a result of OPEC+ members' decision to lift output curbs. During the second half of 2025, it anticipates that the supply of crude will exceed the demand by 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d). It is anticipated that the surplus will continue until 2026, but at a reduced rate of 800,000 b/d.

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The S&P anticipates that the Middle East's oil supply will expand more quickly in July. According to Jim Burkhard, vice-president and global head of crude oil research at S&P Global Commodity Insights, global demand growth is also anticipated to be poor in 2026.

According to the analysis, the Persian Gulf region has almost 4 million barrels of underutilized production potential every day. Trade and investment sanctions may be loosened or even lifted if the tentative ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel is upheld, which would allow more Iranian oil to enter the market.

According to the S&P research, WTI is expected to stay in the high $40s to upper $50s per barrel later this year and into 2026, while Brent prices are expected to fluctuate between $50 and $60 per barrel.