MONTREAL (Oil Monster): Goldman Sachs has raised its December Brent crude oil price forecast to $90 per barrel from $85 as renewed attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and tankers increase the risk of further supply disruption.
The investment bank's October 11 revision adds $5 per barrel to its previous year-end forecast while leaving its broader 2027 Brent outlook at approximately $80 per barrel.
The forecast remains well below current market prices. Brent traded above $106 per barrel on October 12, meaning Goldman's base case still assumes a meaningful decline if Middle East supply and shipping conditions continue to recover.
Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast by $5 per barrel as geopolitical risks across the Middle East increased again during early October.
The revision follows renewed attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz and additional attacks on Saudi infrastructure, which have weakened confidence that the region's recent export recovery will continue without further disruption.
The bank now sees Brent averaging approximately $90 per barrel in December.
Goldman also forecasts West Texas Intermediate crude at about $81 per barrel during December 2026.
Despite the upward revision, Goldman's December target remains well below current Brent prices.
Brent rose to $106.19 per barrel during trading on October 12, its highest level since late September, as tanker attacks and renewed strikes on Saudi Arabia increased the market's geopolitical risk premium.
If Goldman's $90 base case proves correct, prices would therefore need to decline substantially from current levels before year-end.
That expected decline is based largely on an assumption that Middle East crude production, exports and transportation capacity continue adapting to wartime conditions.
Goldman Sachs estimates that slightly more than $20 per barrel of the current Brent price reflects geopolitical and supply-disruption risk.
The premium reflects the possibility that further attacks could damage production facilities, pipelines, refineries or shipping infrastructure and once again reduce the amount of oil reaching international buyers.
Recent tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz have reinforced those concerns after regional crude exports had shown a strong recovery during September.
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Goldman's more moderate longer-term price view reflects the significant recovery in Middle East oil exports.
The bank estimated Persian Gulf oil exports, including shipments from vessels operating without active location transponders, reached approximately 23.3 million barrels per day during the final week of September.
That was broadly in line with the region's average export level during 2025.
Crude oil accounted for nearly 90% of the September export recovery, with estimated crude shipments reaching about 19 million bpd during the final week of the month.
Goldman Sachs estimated that global oil supply and demand were broadly balanced during September as Gulf exports recovered.
That assessment suggests the market had not yet moved into a sustained physical shortage despite high prices and continuing geopolitical tension.
However, a balanced headline market does not mean supply conditions have normalized.
Shipping remains expensive, refined-product supplies remain constrained and significant volumes of crude depend on alternative pipelines, tanker shuttles and ship-to-ship transfers.
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to Goldman's risk assessment.
Regional producers have restored substantial export volumes through the strait and through bypass routes, but commercial shipping continues to face attacks and unusually high transportation costs.
Any renewed decline in Hormuz traffic could quickly tighten the physical market and push prices above Goldman's base-case forecast.
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Goldman also sees depleted global oil inventories as an important source of price support.
Even with Gulf crude exports recovering, the global system has a smaller buffer available to absorb another major production or shipping disruption.
That has increased demand to rebuild inventories and contributed to the unusually large risk premium in crude prices.
Other industry executives have also warned that rebuilding commercial and strategic stocks could take years after the large inventory draws seen during the conflict.
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Goldman Sachs did not materially change its longer-term base case.
The bank continues to expect Brent crude to average approximately $80 per barrel during 2027 as Middle Eastern production and exports gradually recover.
WTI is expected to average about $73 per barrel next year.
The difference between Brent and WTI remains unusually wide because high transatlantic shipping costs have weakened the relative value of U.S. crude.
The latest revision continues a series of upward adjustments to Goldman's oil outlook as the Middle East conflict evolved.
In September, the bank raised its December Brent forecast from $80 to $85 per barrel and its 2027 Brent outlook to $80.
The new October revision moves the December target to $90 while retaining the 2027 forecast.
This pattern reflects a changing balance between two forces: recovering physical oil supply and persistent risks to infrastructure, shipping and inventories.
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The Goldman Sachs forecast is notably lower than the latest outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
EIA expects Brent to average $105 per barrel during the fourth quarter of 2026, after raising its forecast by $14 in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook.
The difference reflects varying assumptions about the pace of Middle East production recovery, inventory rebuilding and the persistence of shipping disruptions.
Both forecasts nevertheless identify regional security and low inventories as important risks to the market.
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The main upside risk is another material disruption to Middle East supply.
Additional attacks on tanker traffic, Saudi export infrastructure, Gulf production facilities or refineries could reduce physical supply and increase transportation costs.
Further inventory losses would also increase the market's vulnerability by leaving less stored oil available to absorb another disruption.
Goldman's base case assumes that producers continue adapting to the conflict and that Middle East supply gradually improves.
A sustained recovery in Strait of Hormuz traffic, reliable operation of alternative export routes and lower geopolitical tensions would reduce the risk premium currently embedded in Brent.
Additional supply from outside the region and weaker global demand could also accelerate the decline toward Goldman's forecast range.
What is Goldman Sachs' December 2026 Brent forecast?
Goldman Sachs now forecasts Brent crude at approximately $90 per barrel in December 2026, up from its previous $85 forecast.
What does Goldman Sachs expect Brent to average in 2027?
The bank continues to expect Brent to average about $80 per barrel in 2027.
Why did Goldman raise its oil forecast?
The bank cited higher geopolitical and supply-disruption risks in the Middle East, low inventories and the possibility of renewed attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping.
Does Goldman expect oil prices to keep rising?
Not in its base case. The $90 December forecast is below current Brent prices above $100, indicating Goldman expects prices to moderate if Middle East supply continues recovering.
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Sources: Goldman Sachs Research; Reuters.
